Kicking Off 2026: Macro Headwinds, GLP-1s, and Finding Hidden AI Value

Welcome back, everyone! It was great to see everyone at our first stock club meeting of the year. We had a packed agenda, and as always, the discussion was top-tier. Here is the recap of the moves we made to position our portfolio for the months (and years) ahead.

We started the evening with our macroeconomic analysis, and—spoiler alert—it’s not good. Between the lagging indicators, a visibly cautious consumer, and some heavily concentrated vulnerabilities that threaten the broader indices, the economic picture is flashing several warning signs. The consensus in the room was that the easy money has already been made. It’s exactly the kind of environment where you can't just blindly buy the market or throw darts at a board. We agreed that navigating this uncertainty means leaning even harder on our core fundamental analysis, demanding fortress balance sheets, and strictly monitoring upcoming corporate and macro events to separate the resilient businesses from the fragile ones.

That discipline led us straight into our deep dive into the GLP-1 space. The landscape for weight-loss and diabetes therapeutics is evolving at lightning speed, especially with the introduction of new oral pill formulations in early 2026 shaking up the dominant duopoly. We spent a lot of time analyzing the recent clinical trial readouts and some of the under-reported effects of GLP-1s - up to 1/3 of weight lost is skeletal muscle - not good. We doubled down on the company we firmly believe will ultimately win in this space. Their undeniable earnings growth, pipeline of next-generation molecules, and superior ability to scale manufacturing give them a massive competitive moat.

Next, we added some defensive muscle by purchasing a blue-chip energy producer, and honestly, it was remarkably good timing given the recent market action. We aren’t trying to predict the exact top or bottom of commodity cycles. Instead, we screened for absolute capital discipline. The company we bought boasts an incredibly low Net Debt / EBITDA ratio, ensuring they have the financial flexibility to weather any macro storms while continuing to aggressively return capital to shareholders. It’s a cash-flow machine that anchors our portfolio perfectly.

Finally, we made our most unconventional play of the night: we bought a cement company. Everyone is chasing the same few mega-cap tech giants to play the artificial intelligence boom, but we wanted to find the hidden AI winner. Those massive, power-hungry AI data centers popping up everywhere require immense physical infrastructure. This cement company is the ultimate pick-and-shovel play. They are supplying the literal foundation for the data center build-out, and when you look at their impressive ROIC, it’s clear management knows exactly how to allocate capital efficiently. It’s a brilliant backdoor entry into the AI theme without paying a ridiculous tech premium.

Overall, we’ve built a strategy that balances aggressive growth in biopharma with unshakeable fundamentals in energy and infrastructure. We’re sticking to our metrics and tuning out the noise.

Here's to a successful 2026!